One run games 2012

But do records in one-run games regress to. I wanted to look at three things: performance in the following year in one-run games, if elite one-run teams regressed less than merely "good" teams, and if teams only regressed to the level their Pythagorean win-rate would dictate. Our common knowledge suggests there should be no real relationship, or at least not a strong one. As expected, we see hardly any relationship at all. That outlier in the top right the most "repeated" performance is from the and Pittsburgh Pirates, who went and then in one-run games.

That sad little guy in the lower left the most "repeated" bad performance is the and Brooklyn Dodgers, who went and then in such games. Anyway, no, it does not appear there is, in general, a relationship between success in one-run games year to year. The logic behind this question is that teams who do other-worldly in one-run games may have some underlying skill or profile that allows them to do so, so they may not regress quite as far.

The opposite logic might be that they have much further to fall in regression. We see basically the same thing as before — almost no relationship, with an R2 of just 1.

There may be a natural conclusion to all of this: that a single run scored in an inning is worth slightly more than a single run scored as part of a two-run or three-run inning. As I said earlier this week , the first two to five runs scored in a game are worth more than the runs that pad your total after about seven. Therefore, it may be true that single-inning runs may be more valuable because they tend to occur in games with lower scores.

Two runs are still worth more than one run. And, as Earl Weaver famously said, if you play for one run, you will only score one run. If you sacrifice a runner to second base, you are still giving up an out. And maybe our list of one-run things can help you better identify situations in which one-run strategies are appropriate. One of them was:. Winning or losing close games is luck. Teams which win more one-run games than they should one year have little tendency to do so the next year.

Thanks to BTF for posting it. Tangotiger has written a program that calculates the expected distribution of runs scored and allowed per game, and then calculates an expected winning percentage. You can download it from his site at the bottom of the page. All stats were courtesy of Retrosheet , the best thing on the Internet.

Brian Matusz was really good believe it or not , but gave Pedro Strop a 2 on, 1 out tricky situation in the 8th. Strop loaded the bases on a walk but got the critical double-play ball. Johnson was perfect in the ninth. Chen went 7 really good innings, and turned the lead over to Strop and Johnson. Strop walked two in a row in the eighth but got the job done. Johnson was perfect for the save. A tremendous job by the bullpen to out-duel the Phillies after Hammel went six and departed the game tied at 4 apiece.

Patton, Johnson, and O'Day were pretty close to perfect after that, as the O's walked off winners in the 10th. Luis Ayala replaced Brian Matusz with two outs in the fifth and the score He stranded his baserunners but gave up a run in the 6th.

Strop and Johnson also pitched, and they were pretty good. This was right when the O's bats went ice cold, though. Not much more the pen could have done. Jason Hammel's signature win? Maybe not, but he was tremendous for 8 innings. Johnson looked a little shaky, but only allowed one baserunner in the scoreless ninth. Arrieta went six, and turned over a game to Patton, Strop, and Johnson, who were all very good. Jake Arrieta's was terrible, going 3.

Troy Patton stranded runners on the corners and went on to work effective long relief, but things came unglued in the 7th inning. The O's were winning at the time , but six hits in the inning tied the game up.

This win was all about the bats. Okay, one more break. June was obviously a big month for the Orioles' record in one-run games. They went in these games despite going in all their other June games.

This was a big month for beating up on the run differential thing. Chen leaves with a runner on 2nd in the eighth and 1 out. The O's are winning , but Pedro Strop pours gasoline on the game. By the start of the 9th it is Robert Andino homers and Jim Johnson gets 3 quick ground ball outs for the win. Darren O'Day starts the 8th inning with a lead.

All but two of the 38 games fit into one of those four categories. Here's what I found:. Just two of the 29 runs that resulted in a one-run Orioles win were "manufactured," and none of them followed a stolen base.

The two manufactured runs came around with the help of a sacrifice bunt. The first was by Endy Chavez on April 22 in the top of the 10th of a tied game. The second was by Robert Andino on September 12 in the bottom of the ninth of a tied game both games were tied , coincidentally. Similarly, just one winning Orioles run scored on a productive out, that coming in the top of the sixth inning on June 6 against the Red Sox when the decisive run scored from third on a Chavez groundout following a trio of singles.

I left that June 6 run as one of my two outliers from the four categories above, but if you want to put it in the hits category it would be just the fifth example of the O's stringing together a series of hits to plate a decisive run in a one-run game. The other outlier came on July 19, when, in the top of the eighth, the Twins walked two Orioles who were moved up by a groundout and scored on a Mark Reynolds single.

Reynolds' hit was clutch, but it was the only O's hit in the inning. If anything, that run counts as an opposition error, which would make it just the fourth example of the O's scoring a decisive run in a one-run game as a result of their opponents' misplays. By far leading cause of the Orioles' winning runs in one-run games was the home run.

In their 29 one-run wins, the decisive run scored on a home run 17 times. Earl Weaver would be proud, but that goes a long way toward undermining the impression of Showalter's in-game strategy as a key component of the Orioles' success in one-run games, at least in terms of run scoring. Where Showalter could be said to have his biggest impact on the Orioles' one-run wins was in his management of his bullpen.